Архив меток: earlywarn.blogspot.com

СССР: энергетика и трудовая теория стоимости

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_(economics)

Станислав Густавович Струмилин (Струмилло-Петрашкевич) (17 (29) января 1877, с. Дашковцы, Литинский уезд, Подольская губерния — 25 января 1974, Москва)
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Струмилин,_Станислав_Густавович

Побиск Кузнецов о киловатт-часе -валюте http://www.situation.ru/app/j_artp_187.htm
Американская методичка как считать ВВП в кВт*часах http://gptu-navsegda.livejournal.com/848918.html
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Бузгалин рассказывает, что стоимость это метафизическая категория которая не измерима http://gptu-navsegda.livejournal.com/937075.html
Когда диалектика выше практики http://gptu-navsegda.livejournal.com/942046.html

Как меньшевик Струмилин угробил марксистскую экономическую теорию
Струмилин соглашается, что энергия в угле в 45 раз дешевле чем в сливочном масле (потребляемом человеком для труда), и энергия в нефти в 110 раз дешевле чем в сливочном масле. По сути, Струмилин природную ренту приписал непроизводительному труду, а рента вообще не фигурирует в его схеме. В действительности, большая часть природной ренты действительно расходуется на оплату непроизводительного труда, прежде всего на оплату труда всех бюджетников, но в физическом смысле процесс идет в противоположную сторону по сравнению со схемой Струмилина. Бюджетники потребляют стоимость природной ренты, а не производят ее, и фокус Струмилина удается только потому, что он природную ренту вообще не учитывает с самого начала.

Главный порок схемы Струмилина всплывает только тогда когда появляется необходимость экспортировать энергоносители, которые при Сталине не экспортировали. Если «природные ресурсы ничего не стоят», то в соцстраны их надо продавать за копейки, так же как гравий и песок, или как минеральную воду в случае с нефтью. При экспорте в капстраны по рыночным ценам будет возникать чудовищная прибыль, которую либо надо отдавать рабочим нефтянникам, либо надо признавать, что СССР чудовищным образом эксплуатирует нефтянников. То есть, теория Струмилина, хоть через задницу, но могла работать в рамках замкнутой экономики, но при начале внешней торговли она просто взрывалась от порождаемого бреда.
http://gptu-navsegda.livejournal.com/942441.html

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Friday, July 22, 2011 Energy in the Industrial Revolution http://earlywarn.blogspot.ru/2011/07/energy-in-industrial-revolution.html

Реклама

Peak Oil and Energy Independence: Myth and Reality

http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/Peak-Oil-and-Energy-Independence-July-2013-EOS.pdf

Monthly Oil Supply Update


That chart also includes the EIA’s figures for crude and condensate (C&C), a narrower definition of oil that excludes biofuels and natural gas liquids that are debatable as to whether or not one wants to consider them in oil supply trends. Global C&C production has been almost flat since 2005 — a bumpy plateau that slopes only very slightly upward.


picture shows the various oil production series, together with Brent oil prices (inflation adjusted, on the right scale).

Saudi Arabian Oil Production

earlywarn: Iranian oil production


http://earlywarn.blogspot.ru/2013/03/iranian-oil-production.html

earlywarn: Добыча, потребление и цена нефти

Non-OPEC Liquid Fuel Production Flat in 2011-2012

This is based on EIA data for all-liquids through October 2012.

OECD Oil Consumption

Oil Supply Flatness Continues

Oil Prices

earlywarn: Bakken Well Stats

http://earlywarn.blogspot.ru/2013/01/bakken-well-stats.html

Графики построены на основании
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf

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В данных, видимо, смешали вертикальные и горизонтальные скважины
Horizontal drilling boosts Pennsylvania’s natural gas production

earlywarn: US Oil Rig Boom Leveling Off?

OCTOBER 17, 2012

The above shows the weekly Baker Hughes count of oil rigs drilling in the United States. This number has been in a near-vertical climb ever since the beginning of the economic recovery in 2009. However, in the last few months there are signs of it leveling off

The sevenfold increase in rigs since the mid 2000s has so far produced about a 20% increase in oil production

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/10/us-oil-rig-boom-leveling-off.html

The Pricing of Crude Oil

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2012/sep/bu-0912-8a.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: Цены на нефть

September 24, 2012

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/09/oil-prices.html

earlywarn: Арктические льды


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/08/arctic-sea-ice-volume.html


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/08/more-on-arctic-sea-ice-volume.html

Литий. 2. Global Lithium Production 1950-2011

The above shows lithium production globally. The data come from this paper before 2009 and from the USGS after that. Since the USGS excludes US production (to protect proprietary information of the sole US producer) I have added the 2008 US production to the 2009-2011 totals, which are therefore approximate. Since US production in 2008 was less than 3% of the total, the error is probably small.

As you’d expect, lithium production grew fairly steadily for decades but has taken off in recent years due to the widespread adoption of lithium batteries for many purposes. The average growth rate over the last decade was 8.1%. The USGS estimates around 30 million tons of lithium resource globally, so we are currently only mining a little over 0.1% of it per year — there is no significant resource constraint here until the late 21st century at the earliest.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/08/global-lithium-production-1950-2011.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: US Crude Production by State


http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/07/us-crude-production-by-state.html

Саудовская Аравия к июню

June 21, 2012

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/06/latest-saudi-production.html


http://www.us-sabc.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=3354

Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA)
Ministry of Finance

Saudi Arabian Ministries
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Civil Service
Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Ministry of Communications and Information Technology
Ministry of Culture and Information
Ministry of Defense
Ministry of Economy and Planning
Ministry of Education

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Health
Ministry of Higher Education
Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Justice
Ministry of Labor
Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs
Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources
Ministry of Hajj
Ministry of Transport
Ministry of Water and Electricity

Saudi Arabian Government Agencies & Organizations

Communications and Information Technology Commission
Department of Zakat and Income Tax
Electricity & Co-Generation Regulatory Authority
General Authority of Civil Aviation
General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI)
Human Resources Development Fund
King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST)
Majlis Al-Shura (Consultative Council)
Meteorology and Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA)
Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu
Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC)
Saudi Arabian Department of Customs
Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)
Saudi Standards, Metrology, and Quality Organization (SASO)
Saudi Export Program
Saudi Food and Drug Authority
Saudi Fund for Development
Saudi Industrial Development Fund (SIDF)
Saudi Ports Authority
Saudi Commission for Tourism & Antiquities
Supreme Economic Council (SEC)
Technical and Vocational Training Corporation

http://www.us-sabc.org/custom/links/index.cfm?category=saudi

Новости Ирана

June 25, 2012
May Iranian Oil Production


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/06/may-iranian-oil-production.html

28.06.2012
1 июля 2012 года вступает в силу соглашение ЕС о введении нефтяного эмбарго в отношении Ирана. От импорта иранской нефти отказалась Южная Корея, существенно снизили её потребление Малайзия, Шри-Ланка и Тайвань. Под давлением США сокращают нефтяные закупки в Иране Индия, Япония, ЮАР. Китай – основной покупатель иранской нефти — уменьшил поставки на 30%

Европейское нефтяное эмбарго лишь одна из мер, предпринятых против Ирана. В пакет входят также санкции в банковской сфере, которые уже отрезали Иран от мирового финансового рынка, заставив иранские финансовые структуры обратиться к затратным и не всегда легальным схемам проведения международных торговых и валютных операций. Другой не менее чувствительный для иранской экономики акт – запрет на страхование танкеров с иранской нефтью.
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Добыча нефти в Ираке

May 24, 2012

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/05/sharp-uptick-in-iraqi-oil-production.html


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9106


http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8505


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7363


http://www.graphoilogy.com/2012/03/iraq-production-reached-3-million.html

earlywarn: Crude and Condensate Reached New Highs in Jan

The EIA helpfully produces a breakdown of the global liquid fuel supply into components. This allows us to distinguish change in the supply of «oil» — narrowly defined as crude oil plus condensates (hydrocarbons which come out of the ground as liquid) — from changes in other things (natural gas «liquids», most of which are actually gases like ethane, propane, and butane, ethanol, and refinery volume changes.

The above graph shows these four substreams — the crude and condensate (C&C) is on the right scale and the others on the left scale. This approach is designed to make it easiest to compare changes. The interesting news is that crude+ condensate, which has been pretty much plateaued since late 2004, has now made new highs. So clearly «peak monthly oil» is not behind us.

At the moment, the plateau in C&C has a slight upward tilt and it’s not possible to say declines in global oil production have begun:

Note that the upward slope to that line is not statistically significant (I only get p=0.2 even ignoring the autocorrelation). So we are still on a flat plateau statistically speaking.

Finally, here is a more traditional stacked area graph showing how the non-oil parts of «liquid fuel» have allowed the latter to rise even as oil proper is essentially flat:


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/05/crude-and-condensate-reached-new-highs.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: iranian vs saudi oil production history


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/03/iranian-vs-saudi-oil-production-history.html


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/03/better-iranian-oil-production-chart.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: Brent & WTI

September 12, 2011

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/09/latest-oil-price-graphs.html

October 14, 2011

Above, I show the price of Saudi Arabian Light grade from the beginning of 2000 (on the y-axis) versus either Brent or WTI on the x-axis. Historically, Arab Light has always sold at a slight and only moderately variable discount to Brent/WTI (because Arab Light is more sour). The black line above represents exactly equal prices. However, in recent months, the historical relationship with WTI has completely broken down and Arab Light is selling for much more than WTI. The relationship to Brent is unchanged.

average weekly retail price of US gasoline versus WTI (top panel) and Brent (lower panel):

you can see that the correlation with Brent is a bit tighter and in particular the current anomaly in the WTI graph where gas prices are too high relative to WTI (the «loose end of the string» at about ($80, $3.50)) is non-existent in the Brent graph where current prices are pretty much normal. WTI is now reflecting an anomalous situation in the US midwest and no longer even explains US gas prices well, let alone global trends.
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/10/brent-is-better-reference-price-than.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: Peak Supermajor was in 2005?

Oil Production of the Top Three IOCs

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/10/oil-production-of-top-three-iocs.html

What are the possible explanations for that? 1) Peak oil plateau — within the areas available to the IOC’s, the geology simply will not support higher extraction rates. 2) Over-regulation — they are not being allowed to drill in places that could support higher extraction rates. 3) Under-investment — the IOC’s have failed to invest in exploration, development, extraction, and extended recovery techniques that would support higher rates. 4) Short term greed — they are more interested in profits today than in increasing extraction rates. (corollary — they don’t think they can increase extraction rates so they might as well minimize costs and maximize profits).

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/10/peak-supermajor-was-in-2005.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: Добыча нефти, цены Brent и WTI

Диаграмма с ценой Brent

Диаграмма с ценой WTI

Диаграмма с ценой Brent

Диаграмма с ценой WTI

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/10/monthly-charts-with-brent-vs-wti.html

Per Capita Oil

Peak Oil Per Capita

A reader asks to see a graph of global oil supply per capita — here it is. The global population data are from the US census bureau, and the oil supply data are from ASPO through 1979 and EIA total liquids after that (the two sources agree to within a percent or so in the overlap).
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/09/peak-oil-per-capita.html

Per Capita Oil Consumption Around the World

Following up on yesterday’s post of global oil production per capita, the above graph shows oil consumption per capita for an illustrative selection of countries around the world (along with the world line in black for comparison). You can see that the developed countries all had peak consumption in the 1970s, fell in the early 1980s, then were flat for a while and began declining again. In Europe, that second decline began in the mid 90s and has been gradual. In the US it started in 2005 and has been rather abrupt.


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/09/per-capita-oil-consumption-around-world.html

World Per Capita Oil Consumption 1965 — 2009

The per capita consumption of oil and total primary energy were calculated for the world using data derived from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (Web: http://www.bp.com) and the CIA World Factbook. (Web: http://www.cia.gov/publications/the-world-factbook/index.htm).
The average value for the 27 years inclusive from 1983-2009 was 4.54 bbl/P/Y with a standard deviation of 0.10 bbl/P/Y.


http://pages.ca.inter.net/~jhwalsh/oilcapv3pages.pdf

17.09.2011
1 trillion — Number of barrels of oil produced since the start of the industry
1.4 trillion — Estimated number of barrels currently considered technically and economically accessible—out of 5 trillion total barrels of petroleum resources in the ground
30% — Increase in annual world oil production since 1978

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572552998674340.html

21.09.2011
There will be peak oil
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-09-21/there-will-be-peak-oil
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Реклама авто США 1939-1969
http://www.darkroastedblend.com/2007/01/cars-girls-american-vintage-ads.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: US Oil Consumption

The above graph shows US weekly petroleum products supplied (EIA) along with a nine week centered moving average to try to smooth out the noise a bit. Data begin in 2000 and go through the week of July 1st 2011. You can see that the high prices since the beginning of 2011 were causing a contraction in oil consumed.

Since the end of April, when prices peaked, consumption has started to rise again. Here’s a closer-in graph just showing 2009-2011, along with prices:


http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-oil-consumption.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: средняя розничная цена бензина и цены WTI

AUGUST 9, 2011

As I write, WTI oil prices are down to $75/barrel. The above graph shows the historical relationship between US average retail gasoline prices and WTI spot prices. The vertical orange line is the $75 level the market touched today. As you can see, historically this corresponded to gas prices of $2.50-$3/gallon.
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/08/oilgas-prices.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: New High for Saudi Oil Production

August 12, 2011

According to OPEC, Saudi Arabian production increased to 9.75mbd in July. This is a modern record (though they produced more back in the 1980-1981 timeframe). However, they didn’t achieve the 10mbd that press reports were suggesting back in June. Whether because the press had the target wrong, or because they couldn’t quite manage the goal, we are left to speculate.

The increase from May to July is about 800 or 900kbd — still some way short of making up for the loss of Libyan production.

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/08/new-high-for-saudi-oil-production.html

earlywarn.blogspot.com: потребление нефти в мире по данным BP

Страны, нарастившие потребление нефти, stacked area graph

Страны, нарастившие потребление нефти, индивидуальные графики

Страны, нарастившие потребление нефти, индивидуальные графики без Китая

Связь экономического роста и потреления нефти

Потреление в мире

the top ten largest decliners (by 2010 consumption) and plot their consumption post their respective peaks, as a percentage of that peak

http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/06/peak-oil-is-not-synchronous.html