Архив меток: нефть торговля диаграмма

zerohedge.com: Global Oil Fundamentals

Source: Morgan Stanley

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-10/everything-you-wanted-know-about-global-oil-fundamentals-were-afraid-ask

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Презентация А.Новака «Итоги работы ТЭК России в 2013 году. Задачи на среднесрочную перспективу». 1

13.01.2014


3506×2437


http://minenergo.gov.ru/press/doklady/
http://minenergo.gov.ru/upload/iblock/6d3/6d31617de7e7f951f664aee1b578d233.pdf

eia.gov: Russia Country Analysis Brief


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Россия: 1300 млрд. куб. футов = 36.4 млрд. м3
Нигерия: 500 млрд. куб. футов = 14 млрд. м3
Иран: 400 млрд. куб. футов = 11.2 млрд. м3
— — — — —

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS

eia.gov: Казахстан

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=KZ

eia.gov: Ливия

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=LY


http://iv-g.livejournal.com/470098.html

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i/ Италия, Испания и Франция уменьшили долю импорта, вероятно, вследствие кризиса в Европе
ii/ Германия и Китай+Великобритания+США (немного) нарастили долю импорта
iii/ Греция исчезла как отдельная сущность, может быть, оказалась в составе Other Europe

Считалочки саудовские: мнения и факты

Саудовская Аравия — США. Объективные причины конфликта

При этом стоить отметить, что рынок США и без того постепенно «схлопывается» для Саудовской Аравии — две ведущих отрасли экспортируют в Северную Америку 20% нефти и 7% продуктов нефтехимии.
Три ведущих рынка для нефти Саудовской Аравии — АТР (около 60% всего экспорта), США (около 20%) и Европа (около 10%). Рынок Китая представляет наибольший интерес, однако перераспределение нефтяных потоков возможно только при ужесточении условий и понижении цены — что для Королевства представляет серьезную проблему.

Говорить о зависимости Саудовской Аравии от американского рынка можно — но основную опасность представляет не объем сокращения экспорта, а динамика «схлопывания». Именно сейчас идет болезненный процесс, связанный с более быстрым сокращением экспортных поставок в Европу и Америку, чем Саудовская Аравия успевает компенсировать их выходом на другие рынки.

(данные взяты из докладов «Топливно-энергетический комплекс Саудовской Аравии:состояние и перспективы развития сотрудничества с РФ» 2011 г, монография И.А.Александров «Монархии Персидского залива. Этап модернизации», сообщения информационных агентств)

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APRIL 19, 2013
Concentration of U.S. crude oil imports among top five suppliers highest since 1997

http://iv-g.livejournal.com/885044.html

Weekly Preliminary Crude Imports by Top 10 Countries of Origin (based on 2012 Petroleum Supply Monthly data)

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin
Crude Oil and Products, monthly thousand barrels

Crude Oil, monthly thousand barrels

Products, monthly thousand barrels

U.S. Net Imports by Country
Products, monthly thousand barrels

Crude Oil and Products, monthly thousand barrels/day

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AUGUST 9, 2013
eia.gov: China poised to become the world’s largest net oil importer later this year

http://iv-g.livejournal.com/940278.html

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Таким образом
i/ снижения экспорта Саудовской Аравии в США с июля 2010 нет, наоборот есть рост
ii/ Crude Oil and Products: снижения экспорта ОПЕК в США есть, примерно, с 2008 г., но снижения экспорта стран Персидского залива нет, если, конечно, не сравнивать с периодом 2000-2005 гг.
iii/ Crude Oil and Products: Для стран Персидского залива и Саудовской Аравии снижение экспорта в США было около 2010 г.
iv/ Crude Oil: картина аналогичная Crude Oil and Products
v/ Нефтепродукты:
v.i/действительно спад импорта в США, начиная с 2006 г.
v.ii/ импорт Саудовской Аравии никогда не был значителен
v.iii/ США с 2010 г. стали чистым экспортером нефтепродуктов
v.iv/ от снижения импорта США наиболее пострадали Non-Opec и OPEC за исключением стран Персидского залива

Выводы
i/ Красивая гипотеза об уходе США с Ближнего Востока, если понимать под ним страны Персидского залива, не подтверждается фактами 😦
ii/ Страны ОПЕК вне Залива ) сократили экспорт в США
iii/ Правильная конспирологическая версия: страны Персидского залива подговорили США наказать все другие страны, включая «незаливных» членов ОПЕК
iv/ предположение о трудности экспорта Саудовской Аравии в Китай — интересная гипотеза, нуждающаяся в рассмотрении: откуда для Китая возможен значительный рост импорта, если не принимать в расчет Саудовскую Аравию?

WEO Special Report 2013: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. 4. Нефть и газ

WEO Special Report 2013: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. 3. Ископаемое топливо, уголь

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i/ Рис. 3.1, 3.3: наиболее сомнительны перспективы Филиппин и Таиланда
ii/ Рис. 3.5: 2017-2019 гг. — пик экспорта угля из ЮВА

eia.gov: Транспортировка нефти в США

Refinery receipts of crude oil by rail, truck, and barge continue to increase

JULY 10, 2013
Rail delivery of U.S. oil and petroleum products continues to increase, but pace slows

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PADD 3 впереди по нетрубопроводной поставке

eia.gov: China poised to become the world’s largest net oil importer later this year


http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12471

crudeoilpeak.info: Сrude oil import

http://crudeoilpeak.info/shrinking-crude-oil-exports-a-tough-game-for-oil-importers
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За 10 рост китайского импорта в 1.5 раза

crudeoilpeak.info: Сrude oil export


http://crudeoilpeak.info/shrinking-crude-oil-exports-a-tough-game-for-oil-importers

eia.gov: Прогнозы импорта нефти в США до 2040 г.

The Low/No Net Imports case simulates an environment in which U.S. energy production grows rapidly while domestic consumption of liquid fuels declines. The Low/No Net Imports case assumes that more petroleum can be recovered from tight oil formations as well as from offshore, Alaska, and gas-to-liquids sources than is considered achievable using current technology and known geology. Domestic crude oil production approaches 10 million barrels per day by 2020 and is sustained near or above that level through 2040.
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eia.gov: Concentration of U.S. crude oil imports among top five suppliers highest since 1997

Crude oil imports from the top five foreign suppliers to the United States—which in 2012 were Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, and Iraq, in that order—accounted for almost 72% of total U.S. net crude oil imports, the highest proportion since 1997. The import share of the top five suppliers increased by 8 percentage points over the past three years despite a decline in total U.S. import volumes as the United States reduced its total crude oil imports in response to higher domestic oil production.

U.S. net crude oil imports from the five countries averaged almost 6.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, even as total U.S. crude oil imports fell to their lowest level since 1997. Crude oil from the five countries accounted for a bigger share of overall U.S. net crude oil imports in 2012 than in previous years, at almost 72%, according to EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly report. That share is up from around 64% in 2009, when the economic recession resulted in declining U.S. crude oil demand, and the highest share since reaching almost 73% in 1997. During 2012, Iraq replaced Nigeria as the fifth-largest supplier of U.S. crude oil imports.

Highlights from the major crude oil supplying countries to the United States in 2012 included:

Canada. Crude oil imports by the United States averaged a record 2.4 million bbl/d, up 8% from their 2011 level.

Saudi Arabia. Crude oil imports averaged almost 1.4 million bbl/d, up 14% from their 2011 level, and were the highest since 2008.

Mexico. Crude oil imports of 972,000 bbl/d were down almost 12%, and fell below 1 million bbl/day for the first time since 1994, reflecting the steady decline in Mexico’s crude oil production.

Venezuela. Crude oil imports rose 4% to 906,000 bbl/d, the first increase since 2007. Venezuela’s state oil company sent more crude to U.S. refineries, which exported more gasoline and other petroleum products back to Venezuela.

Iraq. Crude oil imports of 474,000 bbl/d were up slightly more than 3% from 2011, moving Iraq ahead of Nigeria as the fifth-largest oil supplier to the United States for the first time since 1999. Iraq’s crude oil production in the second half of last year topped 3 million bbl/d for first time since the end of the Gulf War in 1990.

Nigeria. Crude oil imports of 405,000 bbl/d were down 42% from the year before and the lowest since 1985. Growing domestic production of light sweet crude oil of similar quality to Nigerian crude and lower demand for light sweet crude from United States East Coast refineries contributed to the decline.
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=10911

eia.gov: Gabon

Oil undergirds Gabon’s economy, accounting for 65 percent of government revenue and 75 percent of export revenue.

In recent years, Gabon has fallen from being the third largest oil producer in Sub-Saharan Africa to the sixth, following: Nigeria, Angola, Sudan and South Sudan (combined), Equatorial Guinea, and Congo (Brazzaville).

Gabon Country Analysis Brief

www.africaneconomicoutlook.org: Габон

OPEC: Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2012. Macro-economics

27 Sep 2012
The 2012 editions of OPEC’s World Oil Outlook and Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) will be officially presented at a press conference to be held at the OPEC Secretariat on Thursday, 8 November

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/ASB2012.pdf

Brookings Institution: Lessons from the 1986 Oil Price Collapse

1986 г.

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Projects/BPEA/1986%202/1986b_bpea_gately_adelman_griffin.PDF

eia.gov: South Africa Country Analysis Brief

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SF

eia.gov: Political risks focus attention on supply of Venezuelan oil to the United States

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9651

IEA: World Energy Outlook 2012. Presentation to the press

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/PresentationtoPress.pdf

WEO Publications 2008-1994

eia.gov: Mexico Country Analysis Brief

Mexico produced an average of 2.96 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of total oil liquids during 2011. Crude oil accounted for 2.55 million bbl/d, or 86 percent of total output, with the remainder attributable to lease condensate, natural gas liquids, and refinery processing gain.

According to the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ), Mexico had 10.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of the end of 2011. Most reserves consist of heavy crude oil varieties, with the largest concentration of reserves occurring offshore in the southern part of the country, especially in the Campeche Basin. There are also sizable reserves in Mexico’s onshore basins in the northern parts of the country.

Mexico nationalized its oil sector in 1938, and Petroleós Mexicanos (PEMEX) was created as the sole oil operator in the country. PEMEX is the largest company in Mexico and one of the largest oil companies in the world.

Most of Mexico’s oil production occurs in the Bay of Campeche of the Gulf of Mexico, near the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche.

The two main production centers in the area include Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ), with additional increased volumes coming from the fields off the coast of Tabasco state. In total, approximately 1.9 million bbl/d — or three-quarters — of Mexico’s crude oil is produced offshore in the Bay of Campeche. Due to the concentration of Mexico’s oil production offshore, any tropical storms or hurricanes passing through the area can disrupt oil operations.

Over half of Mexico’s oil production comes from two offshore fields in the northeastern region of the Bay of Campeche, Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) and Cantarell. Another quarter of Mexico’s oil production occurs further to the southwest in the same bay, offshore Tabasco state. Most of the oil produced at KMZ and Cantarell is heavy and marketed as the Maya blend, while the oil produced offshore Tabasco is of a lighter grade.

Cantarell was once one of the largest oil fields in the world, but its output has been declining dramatically for almost a decade. Production at Cantarell began in 1979, but stagnated due to falling reservoir pressure. In 1997, PEMEX developed a plan to reverse the field’s decline by injecting nitrogen into the reservoir to maintain pressure, which was successful for a few years. However, production at Cantarell fell rapidly beginning in the middle of the last decade — initially at extremely rapid rates, and more gradually in recent years. In 2011, Cantarell produced 500,000 bbl/d of crude oil, which was roughly 10 percent below the 2010 level and more than 75 percent below the peak production level of 2.1 million bbl/d that was reached in 2004. As production at the field has declined, so has its relative importance to Mexico’s oil sector: Cantarell accounted for less than 20 percent of Mexico’s total crude oil production in 2010, compared with 63 percent in 2004.

Meanwhile, KMZ, which is adjacent to Cantarell, has emerged as Mexico’s most prolific field. Production doubled between 2006 and 2009, when it reached 810,000 bbl/d, as PEMEX employed a nitrogen re-injection program similar to that used at Cantarell. Production has grown more gradually since then, and currently stands at approximately 860,000 bbl/d. PEMEX hopes to increase output further over the next few years, including through the development of the 100,000-bbl/d Ayatsil satellite field, though views differ about whether or not the KMZ complex has already reached its peak level.

Mexico’s other center of offshore production is to the southwest in the Bay of Campeche, near the state of Tabasco. There the Abkatun-Pol-Chuc and Litoral de Tabasco projects, which each consist of several smaller fields, together accounted for 560,000 bbl/d in 2011. The production trajectories of the two field complexes differ considerably. Output from Litoral de Tabasco has increased from less than 200,000 bbl/d in 2008 to over 300,000 bbl/d thus far in 2012, thereby offsetting some of the declines witnessed in Cantarell. Litoral de Tabasco also includes the promising Tsimin and Xux discoveries, which according to some sources could contain up to 1.5 billion barrels of total reserves. Production from Abkatun-Pol-Chuc, on the other hand, has declined considerably from peak levels achieved in the mid-1990s, when output exceeded 700,000 bbl/d.

Mexico is believed to possess considerable hydrocarbon resources in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, which have not yet been commercially developed. PEMEX has been drilling deepwater exploratory wells since 2006, and made its first significant find in the Perdido Fold Belt, near the U.S. border, in August 2012.

Onshore fields represent only around 25 percent of Mexico’s total crude oil production. Most of this production consists of light or superlight oil in the southern part of the country, especially in the states of Tabasco and Veracruz, where more than 80 percent of Mexico’s onshore production occurs. The largest oilfield in the south is Samaria-Luna, which produced about 200,000 bbl/d in 2010.

EIA expects Mexican oil production to continue declining over the next decade, assuming no dramatic changes in policy or technology.

According to OGJ, Mexico had 17.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves as of the end of 2011, a sharp increase of more than 5 Tcf from the year before.

Mexico produced an estimated 1.8 Tcf of dry natural gas in 2011, according to revised figures, which represents a slow rate of decline from the year before. Preliminary Mexican government data suggest that natural gas production has continued to fall in 2012. Part of the decline is due to a divergence in the prices for natural gas and crude oil, which encouraged PEMEX to favor exploitation of the latter.

Regulatory bodies report that approximately 250 Bcf of natural gas was vented and flared in 2011. More than half of the country’s venting and flaring occurred at Cantarell.

North American natural gas trade, 2010-2035 (trillion cubic feet).png

Mexico meets some of its natural gas demand through LNG, but the volume of its imports fell by roughly 20 percent in 2011 as pipeline imports from the United States grew dramatically. According to data from the International Energy Agency, Mexico imported roughly 42 percent of its LNG from Qatar, 28 percent from Nigeria, and 16 percent from Peru, and smaller volumes from Indonesia and elsewhere. Mexico’s LNG supply mix has changed in recent years, as increased volumes from Qatar displaced LNG from Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago, and most notably Nigeria, which had been Mexico’s largest source of LNG.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=MX

spydell: О ценах на нефть

10 Окт, 2012
Объем чистого импорта нефти у 11 основных стран еврозоны может составить в 2012 году 322 млрд долларов. Максимум расходов был в 2008 на уровне 366 млрд, но за счет более высокого потребления нефтепродуктов.

322 млрд — это примерно 2.7% от номинального ВВП. В период с 1992 по 2003 год при низких ценах на нефть средний расход на импорт нефти составлял примерно 1% ВВП. Таким образом, в последние несколько лет крупнейшие страны еврозоны теряют в среднем 1.5-1.7% ВВП каждый год за счет более высоких цен на нефть.

США теряет по 1.5% ВВП

Примерно аналогично у Китая, но надо сделать коррекцию на сильно возросшее потребление нефти. Но картина похожая.

Россия чистый экспортер. Чистый выигрыш от высокий цен на нефть составляет более 15% от ВВП

Вопрос в том, сколько это продолжится? Учитывая то, что развитые страны находятся в полной заднице, то они могут попытаться изменить ситуацию высокой зависимости от энергоносителей. Впрочем, это уже происходит — «демократизация» Африки и Ближнего Востока идет полным ходом. Правда надо учесть интересы лоббистов из крупнейших транснациональных корпораций, типа Exxon, Chevron, Total, Eni и так далее. Им высокие цены выгодны, экономике губительны. Пока интересы компаний и крупных спекулянтов доминируют, именно по этой причине цены на нефть 110-120 баксов, а не 60-80, если смотреть по рентабельности добычи. Посмотрим, кто пересилит.

http://spydell.livejournal.com/464939.html

Годовой отчет Роснефти 2011: Сбыт

eia.gov: Китай, Country Analysis Brief


http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH

capp.ca: О канадских битуминозных песках

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is the voice of Canada’s upstream oil, oil sands and natural gas industry


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50 градусов Фаренгейта=10 градусов цельсия

The Facts on Oil Sands

http://www.capp.ca/getdoc.aspx?DocId=191904&DT=NTV