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ourfiniteworld.com: An Updated Version of the “Peak Oil” Story


Figure 1. Approximate unconventional oil production in the United States, Canada, and China. US amounts estimated from EIA data; Canadian amounts from CAPP. Oil prices are yearly average Brent oil prices in $2015, from BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy.


Figure 2. World conventional crude oil production, if our definition of unconventional is defined as in Figure 1.


Figure 3. World Liquids by Type. Unconventional oil is from Exhibit 1. Conventional oil is total crude oil from EIA, and other amounts are estimated from EIA International Petroleum Monthly amounts through October 2015. (EIA’s category “Other Liquids” is referred to as Biofuels in Figure 3, since this is its primary component. Other liquids also include coal and gas to liquids and other small categories.)
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euanmearns.com: Global Oil Supply Update July 2013

January 3, 2014 by
— Global conventional crude oil and condensate production has been following a bumpy plateau just over 73 million barrels per day since May 2005.

— All growth in liquids supply since May 2005 has come from natural gas liquids (NGL), unconventional oil and biofuels which together with refinery gains now amount to 17.4 million barrel per day providing a total global liquids supply of 90 million barrels per day.

— The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) provides the most comprehensive and readily accessible oil supply data, but owing to budget cuts, is behind in compiling and publishing statistics. The most recent data are for July 2013.


Figure 1 Global crude oil + condensate (C+C) production as reported by the EIA [1] less Canadian syncrude [2] (oil sands) and N American light tight oil [3, 4] (Bakken and Eagleford). Chart not zero scaled. Note how conventional C+C production (blue) rose to 73 million barrels per day in May 2005 but has since been following a bumpy plateau. It remains to be seen if 73 million barrels per day will emerge as the peak in cheap conventional oil production. All growth in global liquids supplies has come from unconventional oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids (Figures 2 and 3).


Figure 2 Global total liquids production now stands at 90.2 million barrels per day [1]. Since May 2005, all growth in liquids production has come from NGL, unconventional oil and bio fuel (Figure 3).


Figure 3 Global liquids excluding conventional crude and condensate. Note that the energy content of NGL is about 70% of crude oil and that significant energy is required to produce syncrude from oil sands and to produce biofuels. Refinery gains represent volume expansion of liquids during the refining process.


Figure 4 Natural gas liquids represent the C2 to C6 fraction that condenses from natural gas production in pipelines or separated from methane in gas process plant. The red line is a ratio between NGL and global gas production [5] and shows that NGL production has simply grown in lock step with global gas production.


Figure 5 The EIA have not updated their biofuel production statistics since January 2012. In figures 2 and 3 the 2011 value has been extrapolated through 2012 and 2013.

http://euanmearns.com/global-oil-supply-update-july-2013/

References
1. The Energy Information Agency (EIA)
http://www.eia.gov/countries/data.cfm

2. Statistics Canada
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a34?lang=eng&mode=tableSummary&id=1260001&p2=9

3. North Dakota Drilling and Production Statistics
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/statisticsvw.asp

4. Texas Railroad Commission
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/eagleford/

5. BP 2013
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy-2013.html

ЛУКОЙЛ: основные тенденции развития глобальных рынков нефти и газа до 2025. 2. Сланцевая нефть

ЛУКОЙЛ: основные тенденции развития глобальных рынков нефти и газа до 2025. 1. Общая часть

http://press.lukoil.ru/post/2013/06/25/PROGNOZ-RINKO-NEFTI-I-GAZA-DO-2025.aspx
http://issuu.com/antonvaluiskikh/docs/lukoil_new_print2cut#embed

http://www.lukoil.ru/materials/doc/Books/Guides/25062013.pdf

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