eia.gov: изменение добычи угля в Китае, доли секторов китайской экономики


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Recent statistical revisions suggest higher historical coal consumption in China

New preliminary data from the China Statistical Abstract 2015 (CSA2015) show an upward revision to China’s historical coal consumption and production. Energy-content-based coal consumption from 2000 to 2013 is up to 14% higher than previously reported, while coal production is up to 7% higher. These revisions also affect China’s total primary energy consumption and production, which are also higher than previously reported—up to 11% and 7% in some years, respectively, mainly because of the revisions to coal. In 2014, energy-content-based coal consumption was essentially flat, and production declined by 2.6%.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) typically publishes the CSA in May. The CSA provides annual total primary energy consumption and production in tons of standard coal equivalent (tce), which reflects the energy content, but it does not provide the physical tonnage of coal consumption and production. Final and detailed statistics are published in the China Statistical Yearbook, which is typically released in September or October.

CSA2015 revises both the totals and the coal shares for all years since 2000 compared with what was provided in China Statistical Yearbook 2014, the most recent final statistics. In the absence of official revisions to physical tonnage of coal consumption and production, EIA independently assessed the historical average heat content of coal consumed and that of raw coal produced in China to estimate tonnages. The assessment factored in information from a variety of sources including information from NBS and other Chinese statistical agencies, industry reports, consultant survey results, expert interviews, and academic papers related to raw coal heat content and coal washing rates and yields by coal type. These estimates show the physical tonnage of coal consumption decreased by approximately 2% in 2014.

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Ситуация чем-то напоминает двойную статистику ежемесячной добычи ОПЕК : secondary sources и direct communication.
Обычно полные данные только по secondary sources. direct communication отстают на месяц или больше. Но после резких ценовых движений или перед мими выходят выпуски Monthly Oil Market Report где объем (но не значения) данных в direct communication равен объему по secondary sources.
В итоге все цифры приводятся к одному знаменателю в Annual Statistical Bulletin и Annual Report. Но это уже знания постфактум.


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